Pity a Martian coming here and trying to understand UK politics.
Alex Salmond said yesterday that a second referendum on Scottish Independence is inevitable. The SNP have 56 MPs sitting in Westminister.
Nigel Farage wants the UK to leave the EU. There are 24 UKIP MEPs.
An unseasonable cliche, but the SNP MPs and UKIP MEPs are turkeys waiting for Christmas if their party leaders succeed. My thoughts on Scottish Independence are inconsistent but I think worth repeating. Here are both my letters published in the FT earlier this year. They aim to give some historical perspective.
“The Republic of Ireland has emerged as a country in control of its destiny and with a lot to offer its citizens across the spectrum of (in no particular order) culture, healthcare, education, employment and investment. This took about sixty years to achieve, after separation from the rest of the UK in 1921, and perhaps Scotland can get there faster but even 16 year old voters on Thursday must be prepared for a tough time for perhaps all of their working lives. “Devo Max” would get them on the path to be another Celtic Tiger without the decades of austerity. I admire the Yes voters for their altruism to future generations.”
“Roy Foster’s excellent reminder of the role played by the Irish Home Rule party after 1885 tells half the story. The first half began in 1829 with the passing of the Catholic Relief Act, allowing Catholics to sit in the House of Commons under the leadership of Daniel O’Connell. As in the period Roy Foster describes, this influx of new, Irish nationalist politicians were a great nuisance but they were tolerated as they propped up a succession of weak Whig and Tory governments. I am descended from two of these MPs, Patrick Bellew and George Bryan, so feel considerable admiration for the achievements of the SNP and, if history is to repeat itself, it may also attain independence.”
I am saying yes to independence, but not yet; not until Alex Salmond and I are long gone. The politico turkeys, I imagine, agree with me. All aboard the gravy train!
Re the turkeys voting for an early Christmas cliche, I’m sure that you had in mind PM Callaghan’s gibe aimed at the SNP in the 1979 No Confidence debate when they sided with the Conservatives to bring down the Labour government. He was dead right as they lost 80% of their seats.
Johnny, I wish I had such a good memory and your point is well made. It is very much in the spirit of this blog to say what we can learn from history. If the SNP get independence will they revert to tribalism? Will it be safe for them to go to Glencoe?
My suspicion is that independence is not going to be any time soon. If Cameron wants to hold the union together he could swiftly introduce full fiscal autonomy for Scotland.
This would either: Expose the SNP as less left wing than their supporters hope as they are forced to reduce the size of the state to reflect lower tax revenues – in this case the Scottish Labour Party revives in opposition to this.
Or, they run up huge debts and increase taxation and the Scottish Tories become the natural opposition. I think this latter scenario is more likely given the SNP’s spending rhetoric, the strength of the Tory leadership (the eminently capable Ruth Davidson) and the paucity of the Labour party in Scotland and as a whole.
Either way, having FFA would damage the SNP and could consolidate an opposition.
The SNP know that this is a trap that they can only walk into – declining (or decrying) FFA would be massively electorally unpopular. No doubt they will try and suggest that it has not been given fairly or wholly, but I suspect it will be hard for them to convince anyone but their most fervent supporters.
This argument ignores many factors and other possible scenarios, but I think it is one way to break the SNP stranglehold and put talks of independence to bed for a while.
Harry,
Your authorative and well-informed analysis makes my generalist opinion seem very shallow. Thank you, and your opinion will always be welcomed.